Revenge of the Third World, Time to Double Down on Developing Markets
Henry Kissinger has said that we are at the “End of an Era”…
The end of the Cold War and reforms in China opened world markets to 1.5 billion people, many of them working at wages less than one tenth of those in the developed world. Over the past thirty years, globalization has become a reality, with interlocking supply chains delivering high quality products at low cost worldwide.
An unintended consequence of this has been the hollowing out of developed world economies and a rising cohort of angry voters in search of solutions. Now serious questions are being asked about globalization, free trade and flexible labor markets, while populism and protectionism are providing simple answers.
Meanwhile, the third world is gaining strength – and presenting opportunities for investors.
We will look at the projections for 115 developed, emerging and frontier countries in terms of human capital, investment flows and government quality to gauge their outlook. Then we will project growth rates to 2050 to visualize where their per-capita GDP levels could be and consider valuations and market inefficiencies.
Where should we put our money? We don’t have answers, but we do have suggestions.
Larry Speidell, CFA, Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Frontier Global Partners
Larry Speidell, CFA is CIO for Frontier Global Partners and sponsor of the Frontier Market Select Fund, which invests in frontier stock markets around the world. Frontier Global Partners was formed through the merger of HAV Capital and Frontier Market Asset Management, which Mr. Speidell founded in 2006. He travels widely and has researched companies in many places, including Abu Dhabi, Argentina, Bangladesh, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, Dubai, Ghana, India, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lebanon, Malawi, Mozambique, Pakistan, Palestine, Paraguay, Romania, Qatar, Senegal, Trinidad & Tobago, Tunisia, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Mr. Speidell is the author of the 2011 CFA Institute Research Foundation monograph, "Frontier Market Equity Investing: Finding the Winners of the Future. "From 2003 to 2006 he was Executive Vice President at Laffer Associates, an investment management and economic research firm.
Prior to joining Art Laffer, Mr. Speidell was a Partner and Director of Global Research and Management at Nicholas Applegate where he launched the firm’s emerging markets products and developed and enhanced the firm's international and global quantitative disciplines. He also spent eleven years as a Trustee at Batterymarch Financial Management where he was a portfolio manager for domestic and international strategies, was responsible for one of the first equity funds in China and worked on the development of a fund for Russia. As Senior Vice President and portfolio manager at Putnam Management Company from 1971 to 1983, Mr. Speidell served as a member of that firm's Investment Policy Committee.
He serves on the board of CFA Society San Diego and is a past president of CFA Society Boston and a past director of the Investor Responsibility Research Center in Washington, D.C. Mr. Speidell earned a BE in Mechanical Engineering from Yale University and an MBA from Harvard University. He served as a submarine officer in the U.S. Navy.
3:30pm – Registration & Networking
4:00pm – Introductions and Panel Discussion
5:15pm – Audience Q/A
5:30pm – Hosted Networking Reception
555 California Street, Suite 4400
San Francisco, CA 94104
Allow an additional 10 minutes to clear building security on the lobby level. Government issued photo ID required.
This event qualifies for 1 hour of continuing education credit for CFA charterholders.
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