Epidemiology of Volatility Transmission and Regime Change Risk Models (Member Only Webinar)
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Epidemiology of Volatility Transmission and Regime Change Risk Models (Member Only Webinar)

When: Tuesday, September 22, 2020
10:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
Where: Virtual Webinar
United States

Online registration is closed.
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Epidemiology of Volatility Transmission and Regime Change Risk Models

There are common pathways in the transmission of viruses and volatility. Volatility, like infectious disease, is transmitted through common sources of infection. Sources of volatility transmission include investor psychology, market contagion, and liquidity pressures. The science of epidemiology, the Kermack-McKendrick SIR Model (1927) and “Reproduction Ratio” are useful mechanisms to examine market contagion and volatility spikes – both UP and down.

Most quantitative risk models fail to detect regime changes. Because quant alpha and risk models rely heavily on historical data, off-the-shelf risk models are unable to rapidly respond to exogenous epochs like novel coronavirus (COVID-19). This presentation will discuss these issues. It will further demonstrate how asset managers are using Machine Learning to uncover correlated sources of risk and classify and monetize differentiated sources of potential alpha in ways that quantitative risk models cannot handle.

This event is offered in partnership with CFA Society New York.


Steven J. Lerit, CFAClient Portfolio Manager, Washington Crossing Advisors

Richard P. Roche, CAIAManaging Director, Little Harbor Advisors, LLC


10:00 a.m. - Opening Remarks

10:05 a.m. - Keynote Speaker, Richard P. Roche, CAIA

10:30 a.m. - Q&A

10:45 a.m. - Break

10:50 a.m. - Keynote Speaker, Steven J. Lerit, CFA

11:15 a.m. - Q&A

11:30 a.m. - Closing Remarks

Learning Outcomes

  • Explain Viral/Volatility Epidemiological Model (Kermack-McKendrick SIR)
  • Discuss virus and VOL super-spreaders and the common vectors of transmission
  • Understand why most quantitative risk models fail to detect regime change
  • Understand fat-tail, multi-asset class and turbulence-enhanced risk models
  • Describe how to identify and highlight unknown risk exposures
  • Analyze monthly economic sector returns and sector correlation heat maps



This event qualifies for 1.5 hours of continuing education credit for CFA charterholders.

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