"The sun sets in the Far East"
Is the world on the cusp of a falling-price boom with cheaper capital and labor or is this the calm before another economic and financial storm? Enfeebled Japan reinforced a dangerous currency war when it redoubled its QE efforts in 2014. The ECB joined in with a sizable 'proper' QE programme of its own in early 2015. Meanwhile, Chinese growth has slowed down sharply, debt has built up alarmingly fast and the currency is significantly overvalued. The necessary correction after years of wasteful investment has only just begun. Will the Chinese join the currency war? Or is there a more benign route for the global economy? What are the risks from a soaring dollar and a reversion to global imbalances?
Charles Dumas has been with Lombard Street Research since 1998. Chairman since 2009, he is recognized as one of the world’s leading macroeconomic forecasters.
Charles originated the concept of a savings glut in 2004, before Ben Bernanke, and showed then that the logical result would be a US household debt crisis. He detailed the analysis and forecast in his early-2006 book ‘The Bill from the China Shop’, going on to write ‘China and America, a time of Reckoning’ (2008) and ‘Globalisation Fractures’ (2010) that was highly praised by Paul Volcker as an analysis of the crisis. In 2011, with Diana Choyleva, he wrote ‘The American Phoenix’, which explained the return of US economic dominance.
Members: Free (Sponsored by Lombard Street Research)
Non-members: $10 (Subsidized by Lombard Street Research)
Lunch will be served.
12:00pm until 1:30pm
Hilton SF FiDi
750 Kearny Street
SF CA 94108
This event qualifies for 1 hour of continuing education credit for CFA Charter holders.
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